Kamala Harris’ Lead in Blue State Halved by Donald Trump: Poll

Kamala Harris’ lead in Minnesota has been halved by Donald Trump, according to polling.
A poll conducted by SurveyUSA and KSTP between July 23 and 25 showed Harris was leading Trump by 10 points among likely voters in the state, on 50 percent to his 40 percent.
However, the most recent survey by the pollster shows her lead over Trump has been cut in half to 5 points. She is now on 48 percent to Trump’s 43 percent. The poll surveyed 635 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
The figures come after the Democratic National Convention last week, which was expected to give Harris a boost in the polls.
“I think you see in the national polls that Kamala Harris is getting sort of a post-convention bump,” Brian McClung, communications director for former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty told KSTP. “So the opposite has occurred in your SurveyUSA poll, but I think this is where we expect the race to be.”
The poll showed Harris was leading among women (55 percent to 37 percent), independents (42 percent to 35 percent) and voters from urban areas (57 percent to 34 percent) and suburban areas (53 percent to 39 percent), while Trump leads among men (48 percent to 42 percent) and voters in rural areas (54 percent to 37 percent).
In a statement shared with Newsweek, Trump’s Communications Director Steven Cheung said the former president “continues to build momentum every single day by campaigning, meeting voters, and engaging with media.
“Meanwhile, the more voters learn about Comrade Kamala and her radical policies, the more they realize she is weak, failed, and dangerously liberal.”
Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email.
Despite the decline in Harris’ lead, Minnesota is not considered a swing state in this election cycle. The state has voted for the Democrats in every presidential election since 1972, and poll aggregators show that is not set to change in November.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Harris is 9.1 points ahead in the state, on 49.5 percent to Trump’s 40.4 percent. Pollster Nate Silver’s model also shows the vice president ahead with a 9 point lead, which has increased from 4.9 points since July 24. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker puts Harris ahead by a smaller margin of 5.5 points.
Every poll conducted in the state since Biden ended his re-election campaign on July 21 has shown Harris leading Trump by between 3 and 10 points. All but one of the polls showed Harris leading outside of the margin of error.
However, before Harris became the candidate, multiple polls showed Trump with a lead of between 1 and 5 points in the state. For example, in the last poll conducted in Minnesota before Biden ended his re-election campaign, Trump had a 1 point lead over Biden when third party candidates were included. The poll was conducted by Emerson College and The Hill between June 13 and 18 and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Meanwhile, in the first poll published after Harris became the candidate, conducted by Fox News between July 22 and 24, Harris had a 6 point lead over Trump when third party candidates were included, a lead outside of the poll’s 3 percent margin of error.
In the first poll after Harris appointed Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies between August 12 and 15, she was up by 7 points.
Amid the Democrats’ lead, the Trump campaign has targeted the state for campaign events, holding a rally there in July where he discussed his agenda for the Oval Office.
“Inflation will stop. The illegal aliens will be turned back. The cartels will be in retreat. Crime will fall. Energy prices will plummet. Incomes will soar. And a world in chaos will rapidly be transformed into a planet of peace,” he said.
He also attacked his opponent, calling Harris a “radical left lunatic” who supports defunding the police, taking away guns, letting in tens of millions of undocumented immigrants, and limiting red meat. Harris has not shown support for any of these positions.
Trump added that he will win Minnesota easily as long as “they don’t cheat.”
Ahead of the rally, Democrats including Walz and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar held their own event to energize 300 volunteers at the St. Paul Labor Center.
“Three days ago, the nation found out what we’ve all known in Minnesota, [Trump and Vance] are just weird,” Walz said at the rally.
Harris is yet to visit the state as part of her campaign.